The other top jobs races

HELLO and welcome to Transition Playbook. These weeks very much feel like an interbellum. Ursula von der Leyen has received the nod from EU leaders for a second five-year term as European Commission president, but she still has to clear the European Parliament. Ahead of the likely knife-edge vote, von der Leyen is skipping the NATO summit in Washington next week to try to convince European lawmakers to give her another five years in the Berlaymont.
EU TOP JOBS — WHERE ARE WE AT? This week was dominated by power plays in the European Parliament. The right-wing European Conservatives and Reformists group consolidated its third-place position after Poland’s Law & Justice party declared it would not defect, despite earlier threats to do so. That makes it bigger than French President Emmanuel Macron’s Renew group.
Von der Leyen hitting the phones: Meanwhile, von der Leyen and her team are scrambling to secure votes ahead of the European Parliament plenary later this month, when MEPs will decide her fate. The vote is a secret ballot and it’s likely to be close. So she might never find out whether the assurances of support she’s hearing were genuine.
THE OTHER TOP JOBS RACE: In other parts of Brussels, the conversation has already moved on to what happens next. The formation of the new Commission will set off an enormous reshuffle of commissioners, portfolios and thus… cabinets.
New commissioners: While some countries have already put forward their nominations, others are waiting for von der Leyen’s official invitation. Assuming she gets confirmed, she’s widely expected to ask countries to put forward both a man and a woman, as she did last time around. Not every country is ready to grant her request, even if that could mean the risk of a less important portfolio.
New portfolios: Dividing the Commission’s portfolios among the 26 commissioners is a Herculean task. Not only do you have to take into account the wishes of national leaders, you have to think about party balance, geographic distribution and gender equity. And then, there’s the not-so-insignificant question of whether the commissioner is actually up to the task.
New cabinets: Once the commissioners survive their hearings in the European Parliament, they will be able to form their cabinets, kicking off another scramble. Given that commissioners can only hire a limited number of people of their own nationality, other countries will be lobbying to get their people into key cabinets. Career civil servants will also be trying to boost their prestige by locking in a cabinet post.
If you’re reading this it’s probably too late. Much of this job-jostling started well before June’s European Parliament election. “It’s a lot of work,” said one Commission official. “You have to work the Perm Rep, the head of cabinets and the potential future head of cabinets. The most important thing is to bet on the right people because you cannot put your bets on too many horses at the same time.” 
PARLIAMENT TOP JOBS: The secretary generals of the Parliament’s political groups will spend Monday and Tuesday deciding which groups will get how many top jobs in the assembly. The groups will use something called the d’Hondt method to decide who gets to pick first among a list of more than 100 jobs ranging from Parliament vice-presidents and quaestors to committee chairmanship roles.
Committee chairs will be formally voted in the week after the first plenary session in July.
MERGER WATCH: In other parliamentary maneuvering, the far-right Identity & Democracy group pushed its kick-off meeting to Monday after Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán announced a new alliance, the “Patriots of Europe,” and lured away some ID members, including Austria’s Freedom Party and Portugal’s Chega. The group is expected to discuss fully merging with the Patriots.
STAR POWER: Meanwhile, Italy’s 5Star Movement’s request to join the Left group was accepted on Thursday morning. That means 5Star’s eight MEPs will sit with the 39-member Left group, bringing the total to 47, still behind the Greens.
MOVERS AND SHAKERS: Danish official Maj Aslett-Rydbjerg will be the Left’s secretary-general, reflecting the strong showing of Denmark’s Red-Green Alliance in June’s election. French far-left MEP Manon Aubry and German Die Linke’s Martin Schirdewan were reappointed as co-presidents, with Schirdewan to be replaced by Kostas Arvanitis from Syriza in 2027. Hanna Gedin from Vänsterpartiet Sweden, Irene Montero from Podemos, Marc Botenga from the Workers’ Party of Belgium and Arvanitis will be vice presidents.
FINLAND CHOOSES COMMISSIONER: Helsinki nominated Henna Virkkunen, Finland’s former education minister, to be the country’s EU commissioner.
HUNGARIAN DANCE: Word is that János Bóka, minister of European affairs, could be the country’s next commissioner. “I haven’t heard these rumors myself and I have no such ambition,” he told journalists. The other front runners are Hungary’s current Commissioner Olivér Várhelyi and MEP Enikő Győri.
SEC GEN SHUFFLE: Both the Socialists and Democrats and the European Conservatives and Reformists groups in Parliament are set to lose their secretary generals to retirement. The names in the mix include the outgoing Portuguese MEP Pedro Marques for the socialists and Andrzej Sadoś, a former Polish ambassador to the EU, for the ECR.
Current excitement level: Holding our breaths (and taking a breath) before the vote in the European Parliament.
Last word: “What we are offering is a European alternative and not an alternative to Europe,” János Bóka, Hungary’s minister of European affairs.
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